Indo_China: Oil Rivelry: Lessons for India and West

[raj2rif]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshowbnews/1211953.cms

The Chinese foreign policy in not interfering in the internal affairs of the oil rich countries is paying dividends. Unless India gets a UN Permanent Seat with Vito power, it would be difficult for her to match China in geopolitics. It may be in the interests of the West to help India as an alternative super power in the Chinese neighborhood. The more they delay, the difficult it would become.

[ravichaud]

http://www.saag.org/papers12/paper1118.html

Uncle,

This site above claims that India is lacking a clear strategic vision. Is there a current document outlining India's National Security Strategy, and use of the economic instrument of power? Do you think it is consistent with the strategy outlined in the article you submitted? I'd love to hear your thoughts. It has been a subject of intense discussion among my colleagues

Ravi Chaudhary

[raj2rif]

Dear Mr. Ravi,

You have brought out a very pertinent and important issue to discuss. What Gen Fuller has said is absolutely right

“The true might of a nation is to be sought for not so much in the strength of its Army, which is but the means of materialising this might, but in the health of its spirit, that is its will (NATIONAL WILL) to preserve itself from dangers external and internal. Major General JFC FULLER


Now comes the article itself. The article is statement of facts what has happened probably since Mrs. Gandhi took the office of PM. I am not sure if such activities in parliament were happening before she became PM? Our politicians have been our main weakness over the period of time. I am not saying all of them lacked the vision, but certainly at one point of time or other they did fall short of expectations whether it was Mr. Nehru, Mr. Patel, Mrs. Gandhi, Mr. Shastri or more for that matter any one, when it came to National Securities Issues. I am a big fan of Mr. Lal Bahadur Shastri, but he probably ended up doing one of the biggest mistake a leader could do to the national security by agreeing to hand over "Hazipir Pass" to Pakistan in 1965, after it was won by the Indian Military after a bloody battle. I would say that Mr. Shastri died at a right time otherwise the ghost of Hazipir would have haunded him for rest of his life and even may have terminated his political career.

Till the time I was in India, I know for sure, our Nation probably did not have a well defined "Threat Perception" at the political level. At army level we certainly do have one, but that has no meaning since it is the Parliament that is supreem and it is the Cabinet Committe that makes the security decisions.

The design of entire defence is based on this threat perception. So we are missing the starting point. Once the threat perception is defined, then we need to articulate the detailed plan to meet that threat. This guides us to lay down the guide lines for our organization for armed forces, the equipment we need to buy or manufacture, the reserves we need to maintain and the infrastructure we need to develop to meet these threats. It also lays down the guide lines for our research and development departments to keep trying new weapons and equipments to be in pace with the latest global developments.

There is a lot one can write on this, but let us have some views from others. I shall contribute my penny's in due course.

[rkumar]

Acquiring Oil fields in far away countries might seem progressive strategy, but its not free of commercial risks. Western firms are very shredue commercial players and who knows, they might be using India card to extract good price from China. Think of any not so friendly government in the country concenred in future, China might end up shinking all its money down the drain. It might boost national ego at present, but its full of many risks in long run. Coutries concerend might extract a political price from China which is too high. I won't call it a total win for China. India should not deviate too much from business aspects of the deal as Geo-Political roles keep changing with time and one can never be sure in long run. There are too many loop holes in these deals. Saudi Arabia and Iran sitting at the massive Oil reserves don't make strong nations. India should side with major Oil consumers of Europe and USA to play active role in the game rather than being emotion with China deals. We should eneter only the deals which are secure and commercially viable.
RK^2

[raj2rif]

Acquiring Oil fields in far away countries might seem progressive strategy, but its not free of commercial risks. Western firms are very shredue commercial players and who knows, they might be using India card to extract good price from China. Think of any not so friendly government in the country concenred in future, China might end up shinking all its money down the drain. It might boost national ego at present, but its full of many risks in long run. Coutries concerend might extract a political price from China which is too high. I won't call it a total win for China. India should not deviate too much from business aspects of the deal as Geo-Political roles keep changing with time and one can never be sure in long run. There are too many loop holes in these deals. Saudi Arabia and Iran sitting at the massive Oil reserves don't make strong nations. India should side with major Oil consumers of Europe and USA to play active role in the game rather than being emotion with China deals. We should eneter only the deals which are secure and commercially viable.
RK^2

There are few aspects one needs to consider. Firstly, what one has? what one can use? There is no doubt, energy is one of the most important comodity that drives not only businesses but nations as well as individual. While it may look a trivial example, but a person can not perform his/her duties unless has energy to do so. Oil is one of the most versatile source of energy and thus is the race for it. While business like dealings totally working on the profitability of a project are important, the diplomatic fallout and other issues should not be lost sight off. What we need to do is to impress upon the Western Democracies on the emergence of China both Militariliy as well as economically to the size that would be difficult to curtail, unless we bring about some thing in close proximity of her borders that can match her in each aspect. This philosophy would help India get her due share in the world politics and a permanent seat in the UN with Vito powers should be seen in that light.

Small as they may look now, such events do affect the nations. It is not the question of loosing out to China on couple of business deals, but it is the greater impect of such deals that would take place strategically in lobbying nations for furthering our national interests on the world forums. We do need to make a concerted effort that we don't loose out again and again. Winning and loosing become habits and we certainly don't want to become habitual of loosing.

[ravichaud]

I would venture to guess that a key bargaining tool is to appeal to super power interest, which is to maintain regional balances of power to prevent future commitments on the world stage. US has shown time and time again that it feels a natural stake in regional balances of power, be it in the Balkans, the Gulf or in South Asia. But it is not only the military aspect that India has to address. Simultaneous use of all instruments of state power should be a must (use of Diplomatic, Economic, Information, and Military methods). It is in diplomacy where India must catch up.

And the key to strong diplomacy is to stress the common Democratic values that the US and India share. Lets face it. Democratic governments do not attack each other. It is typically a binding force. India needs to use this to its advantage and show it can further the cause of democratization in South Asia. In this manner I would venture that India's outlook for accelerated Economic growth and prosperity are very high, well over China's potential. India has the power to accelerate this growth...they just need some aggressive diplomacy to keep things going. The sharing of nuclear technology WAS A HUGE STEP!

But remember, balanced use of the instruments of power is important. Strenthening the military alone could send the wrong message, and cause uneccessary worry among regional players and less favor from the US. Complement all instruments..economic, diplomatic, information, and you have a potent combination for success!