Can India Lead ?

[anilkc]

I am not talking abt the political/military leadership. I am talking abt the tech leadership. I have read many statements by Indian politicians and industry leaders claiming India will be a leader in technology and will fuel its economic growth. It will be leader of the Information age in very near future. On the other hand I read articles by USA counterparts that US will never loose its tech edge.

Here is one such interview with Greg Papadopoulos, Sun's chief technology officer.

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/mar2004/tc20040316_0460_tc166.htm

The ans that caught my attention was:
"I don't see that wave of deep thinking coming out of anywhere besides U.S. companies and universities."

So, here is my Q:
Leaving aside the history and NRIs, Is the assesment by Americans true for techies in India ? Is todays work culture in India discourage innovation ? Is Inidan society averse to risk taking ?

Some cut/paste here from it:

The foundations of many things that are being built now can be traced back to the U.S. Take Linux. It was arguably built in Scandinavia. But it was based on Unix, which was built in the U.S. And even Linus Torvalds [the founder of Linux] is now working here. It all comes back to U.S. innovation, which has led to a distillation of tech leadership.

There were far more competing ideas around the globe 20 years ago with respect to computer architecture, operating systems, and software. There were dozens of companies with their own ideas in Europe and Japan. All of that stuff is gone now. The standards came out of the U.S.

The real question is: Will the next wave of technology emerge from China, or will the Chinese follow the innovation that we started in the U.S.? I see no indication [that other countries] are going to drive the next wave of conceptual thinking.

All of the operating system software -- Linux, Windows, Java, .Net -- is coming from U.S.-based companies. In the U.S., we're all thinking about what the next wave of sensor technologies will look like around RFID [radio frequency identification].

[rkumar]

Dear Anil,

First of all let me thank you for posting the article. What he says is true for the time being. However, in long run it can not be said so. Read is own answer which I am posting below;
"Q: What are some of the risks?
A: Other societies have a much higher matriculation rate of people in technology fields. We could be overwhelmed if we don't educate enough people to meet our needs. "

If you look at the general US population, there are lesser and lesser number of students taking to science. Situation has reached a point where they are finding hard even to have science teachers. Only way USA can maintain the lead is if they keep doing economically well and at the same time keep attracting talent from all over the world. Their failure on either of these fronts will spell decline. So let us wait and watch which way USA goes on open market and open door immigration policy. It will all depend upon the quality of leadership who will run the affairs of that country...and same is true of all countries I suppose. I must make one thing clear here. Innovation alone does not take a nation forward economically. There are lots of things put together which propell a nation forward. Unfortunately I do not see all the signs healthy in USA at present...

Regards
Rajendra

[anilkc]

I agree, there is a potential for US to fail.
I am not bothered if or when will US fail.
What I am concerned is if US fails who will fill the gap..india, china, europe or ghana?
If US does not fail, can anyone catch them or surpass them? Can India be that country of future?

I agree, Innovation in itself is not the answer to economic well being. Other things too have to be in place. But w/o it u cannot be #1. Look at Japan and germany, they are always on second spot. Today, any country, if it wants can build a better Taj Mahal, but Taj Mahal will be always #1. Gandhi Ji's method to fight against British was innovative. Gandhi ji or his method alone did not force Britishers to leave India, but I have no doubt his contribution took the fight for independence to a whole new level of strength.

My Q, to be more precise is:
Can someone here in India, come up with some "techie" Idea that he/she beleives can give rise to an Indian SUN Micro or Microsoft or Cisco ?
Does the Indian business environment have the right support system to help him/her ?

If not then the assessment by Americans that we are nothing more than software coolies is right.

[anilkc]

Here is the Indian point of view:

India all set to become an innovation hub: Mashelkar

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownewsdata.asp?newsno=23778

"India is becoming a global research and development hub especially for the companies from the West. Over one hundred companies around the world have set up their research and development centres in the country during the last five years,"

The point they all miss is that the "research" is initiated by west and the incentive is to get cheaper products in the western market. So, we are doing what the west tells us to do and what west want us to do.

As said in the interview: "The standards came out of the U.S."
India will be a true tech powerhouse if the IEEE, ITU, IETF etc stds come out of reasearch in India initiated by Indian industry.

[ajmer]

Folks,

I think it is too early to tell whether India can lead.

Just to give some perspective - US-China trade stands at more than 800 billion dollars whereas US-India trade stands at less than 20 billion dollars. That is a huge gap. Also India stands at about number 20 in the list of countries exporting to US. On the bright side China has a trade surplus with US of about 25 billion dollars while India has a trade surplus of about 8 billion dollars at the end of 2003.

India did make a big progress in last couple of years. In fact India actually made in the top 20 exporting (to US) countries only recently probably for the first time.

Read this report

http://www.indiaonestop.com/tradepartners/us/usoverview.html

It says

"India is now the number one exporter to USA of small/medium sized diamonds (US$ 2.6 bn), knotted and woven carpets (US$ 384 mn), linen (US$ 366 mn), large/medium sized frozen shrimp with shell-on (US$ 220 mn), cashew nuts (US$ 213 million), antibiotics (US$ 138 mn), woven silk fabrics (US$ 85 mn), pepper (US$ 32 mn), opium (US$ 31 mn), guar gum (US$ 23 mn), psyllium seed husk (US$ 22 mn), woven jute fabrics (US$ 14 mn), and niger seed (US$ 10 mn)."

Yes the diamond number looks good but all other numbers are pretty nominal.

It is still too early to tell whether India can continue to grow its exports.

There are only a few areas where India has shown some good growth IT being one of them.

There are some areas where India has some good potential in terms of exports such as IT, BPO, Pharmaceuticals, healthcare and even education. At the same time India needs to meet its internal needs especially cut down on its energy requirements by using non-conventional energy sources.

I think the two major cylinders India has going right now are IT sector and the talent pool India has working overseas which contributes back to India.

In fact, I don't see the contribution of people overseas in any reports. I don't know why. I would think that there are 10 million Indians overseas. Even if every Indian is sending/spending 100 dollars in India every year. That amounts to 1 billion dollars. Now that is a sizable amount. One would think that people in US/Canada/Europe/Australia will be sending/spending lot more than that (assume 1000 dollars) every year. Assuming 2 million people of Indian origin in the Americas, Europe and Australia combined and that amounts to 2 billion dollars.

More later.

Thanks

-ajmer

[anilkc]

Ajmer ji,
Do not look in newspaper reports for contributions from NRIs. Look at the bank interest rates for foreign currency and facilities given to NRIs. Its down to 1% for USD and no FDs and many other facilities withdrawn.

India diaspora remit record $18 billion in 2003

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownewsdata.asp?newsno=23658

ANother major diff between China and India in IT is that China has a huge domestic market while India does develeopment only for export and 75% to USA alone.

To be a real world class economy we have to create our own unique value. If China can copy it, forget abt USA, we will never reach even Chinese stds.

My Q:
Do u have the ability to create value?

[rkumar]

As of now with persons like Lalu, maya, Rabri and whole lot of them at the helm of affairs, I do not see that possibility. Unless whole national politics is single minded united to take India ahead and remove all the hurdles from the path, I see no hope of India making it. Wishful thinking of few of us on net will not propel India to position number one or even 3. The major problems are;

1. Lack of equal opportunities
2. Corruption at every level
3. Lack of quality infrastructure
4. Law and order problem in many of India States
5. Lack of honesty in business
6. Concelling income and not paying income tax

Goverment and beaurocracy is squarly responsible for all these above. These have become our national character. Unless we improve our commitment to nation and stop doing what all has taken us back, we can not move forward. Dreaming has to be followed by honest hard work. Like body can be called healthy only when all its organs and parts are healthy, similarly a nationa can be called healthy when all its parts are moving in harmony. As of now and in foreseeable future I do not see anything like this happening. May be we will send man in space, and do some scattered progress here and there, but I do not see us any where near being a uniformly developed nation. How can we reach to some destination when we are not even thinking about reaching there and making good enough efforts to reach there. We have to identify new resources . In my mind one single major resource is becoming clean water. We make lots of noise but do precious little to harvest water. Most of our rain water flows to sea. If one looks at many of interstate disputes, they are around sharing the water. India has to invest heavily into infrastructure and unless it does, no way it can make it anywhere near the top position. Over all character of people has to improve and unless that happens, no way India can make to top. Positive nationhood has to get into the mind of people. People at every level must be made to be part in nation building. Only good leadership can do it and not the selfish politicians which we have in a abundence all around... So keeping in mind every thing my views are that there are only 5-10% chances under present circumstances for India to make to the top position.

Rajendra

[anujkumar]

Interest rate in US are below 1%, and FX for USD-INR going steadily down. Effective interest rate if you keep your USD in US is negative, with respect to remit in INR to India. You should have confidence to invest in INR not USD in India.
It should be obvious that "facilities" to NRI's would go down with Indian economy doing well (Time for NRI's to pray for India screwing, to get a great $ value .. ;-) )

I think with dual citizenship, awards, Diwas, India is giving enough respect to NRI's.


anil chaudhary (Apr 14, 2004 11:56 p.m.):
Ajmer ji,
Do not look in newspaper reports for contributions from NRIs. Look at the bank interest rates for foreign currency and facilities given to NRIs. Its down to 1% for USD and no FDs and many other facilities withdrawn.

India diaspora remit record $18 billion in 2003

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownewsdata.asp?newsno=23658

ANother major diff between China and India in IT is that China has a huge domestic market while India does develeopment only for export and 75% to USA alone.

To be a real world class economy we have to create our own unique value. If China can copy it, forget abt USA, we will never reach even Chinese stds.

My Q:
Do u have the ability to create value?

[anilkc]

Rajendra JI,
U have rightly listed the "bad" thats holding India back and u have hit right on the nail whenu said that its become a "national character". Majority of us have tolerated this and given an opportunity indulge in it. The reasons I execuses given are:
1) I alone cannot change this
---but sure u can change ur self
2) Everyone does it
---everyone does it bcos u do it, do not compare, do what u want to do and take resposibilty for it, do not blame others

and most inexcusible excuse:
3) yeh america nahi hai, yahan aisa hi hota hai
---then why the hell do u want to emulate america in ur television shows, see hollywood movies and if possible take the first opportunity to smuggle urself to west etc.
Try to make ur own country better.

I was really inspired by the movie "dhoop". persistence and faith can change things. if it can happen for one, it can happen for everyone.

more soon....

[anilkc]

Hi Anuj,
"Time for NRI's to pray for India screwing, to get a great $ value ..."
An appreciating rupee will make them "poorer"
compared to imaginary "richness".
It happened a couple of years back, one fine evening, one of my friend tells me he just lost a million dollors today. Well, I was speechless for a while and then I muttered, what happened?! He explained that his previous employer went IPO today and its stocks aprreciated more than 200% today. If he had stayed with them, he would have been a millionaire today.

If a person had stayed back in Inida, he would be getting richer today in $ terms.

But I dont think any NRI should pray for India to screw up, top 3 reasons:
1) Its a negative thought
2) Having a Indian connection, he can better invest in India and get better returns on $$$
3) If he plans to return to India, he will find a better country to live in

[rkumar]

Dear Anil,

Mind set of most of NRI is not as simple. After seeing world and working under different environment majority will like to keep as many options open as possible. Truely speeking the world has become a global village and one can not strictly define the economic boundaries at least. With vast amount of information available on real time basis, one has many options of investing and India is just one. NRIs will never want India to be screwed just for some gain in $$s terms... which as u said yourself is highly imaginary.

Adding to my earlier post on the subject, I see major competition to USA from EU. Look at Euro and £, both have appreciated considerably against $. Compared to USA, EU is a more mature society in my views as it has longer history behind it. Rusia is emerging economically very fast. In today's world one can control things which are physical in nature, but not things like intellectual which can flow freely across all political boarders. Even money can be moved electronically very fast. What we common Indians do as far as my views are concerned;

1. Keep ourself technically and intellectually uptodate with world happenings and this is where we can take lots of help from NRIs.
2. Make economic issues important in elections
3. Make position of India in world affairs also as an election issue in future.
4. Be open to all possibilities as they will change much more frequently in future.
5. Think much more ahead into future and take chances to have lead over others involved in conventional jobs.

This is going to be the centuary of those who can think far ahead and along totally new things. and most important...in pakki jattu bhasaa.... jo janwar khoonte se bandha hota hai wo kabhi race ko nahi jeet saktaa...

So let us not be tied with our old mind set. Let us think with free mind if we wish to march forward at fast speed...

Regards
Rajendra

[anilkc]

Rajendra Ji,

...jo janwar khoonte se bandha hota hai wo kabhi race ko nahi jeet saktaa...

kiya baat kahi hai! Bahut badhiya !

Sabsi khatarnak baat yeh hai ki hum is khoonte ke itne aadi ho chuke hain ki, humein yeh bhi nahi pata ki hum bandhe hua hain
aur is khoonte ke bina bhi jiya ja sakta hai.

Thank u sir.

[ajmer]

Thanks Anil for pointing to the article. So I was thinking in the right direction when I said that NRIs are major source of money coming towards India. Now $18bn is really a large number. Now good thing is that this number is only going to go up.

So to help answer your question whether India can lead, the government has really not done anything so far in this direction. Also we don't see any signs that the governemnt will do anything. As many have pointed out it needs a change in the leadership, a working government system and a new way of thinking.

The government has not done anything to send its people abroad or to generate IT exports. If anything it has made the conditions so worst in India that the people started running away and find opportunities outside of the country. It is the talent and hardworking nature of Indians that this money is flowing into India either through NRIs or IT exports.

Another point worth making is that even though so much money is flowing into India, most of it is channeled towards the upper class. The upper class then sends much of this money back to other countries either through their swiss bank accounts or on leisure outside of the country. Very little of this money is being channelled to the lower class through low wages or almost non-existent welfare system.

India needs people like Narayan Murty and Chandrababu Naidu at the top.

http://members.tripod.com/chandrababu/thesis.html

-ajmer


anil chaudhary (Apr 14, 2004 11:56 p.m.):
Ajmer ji,
Do not look in newspaper reports for contributions from NRIs. Look at the bank interest rates for foreign currency and facilities given to NRIs. Its down to 1% for USD and no FDs and many other facilities withdrawn.

India diaspora remit record $18 billion in 2003

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownewsdata.asp?newsno=23658

ANother major diff between China and India in IT is that China has a huge domestic market while India does develeopment only for export and 75% to USA alone.

To be a real world class economy we have to create our own unique value. If China can copy it, forget abt USA, we will never reach even Chinese stds.

My Q:
Do u have the ability to create value?

[sanjeevmalik]

Firstly, Thanks to Anil for creating a very appropriate and thoughtful thread. Secondly, views of Mr. Rajendra ji have been very enriching. “jo janwar khoonte se bandha hota hai wo kabhi race ko nahi jeet saktaa...” is a true statement by Mr. Rajendra ji. We all have the urge and desire to be more successful and we will be, if it is in our mind.

Can India Lead? What has future in store for India? Or how can every Indian be proud of their land of birth? When will every Indian strive to work for their homeland? When will every Indian think that s/he will be successful and satisfied by being in India and not in a foreign country? I guess it’s that time India will lead.

The gap when the above can be accomplished and where we are today is pretty wide. But we can fill the gap. The progress has to be at a better rate then that of the developed countries. There are many ingredients in making this happen.

I am sure this question arises in mind of every patriot. This itself is a sound start.

I understand that economy, infrastructure, government, facilities, etc are the checkpoints of a leading community/nation, but it’s the burning desire to be better that pulls/pushes an individual to touch new horizons of success. We have started on this long road/journey and I am sure we will be there in my life span.

[sangwan_a]

there is big difference in how a western mind and an indian mind looks at a problems and situations.

if u look at the progress westerners have made in the past, there has been a dark side to it which suggests impulsiveness. plastic was hailed in the west and said to revolutionize the world, today it is choking us. look at motorized vehicles ... after a century of pollution, solutions is form of hydrogen vehicles are being sought ... there is a hint a narrow vision and an extreme affinity to short term goals in all these situations.

indian culture on the other hand has been to work for long term goals. things are neither accepted or rejected immediately as a part of our daily life. we stick to things that have proven value through observation over years ...

naturally we do not conform to the western idea of innovation. but in our limited capacity of finances indians have been innovators. the greatest thinkers of philosophy and religion have been born here. why even our farmers in the fields have been innovators. look at the multi utility vehicles ( often called jugaad) ... in the limitation of technical knowledge and money it is a very useful innovation .

while we must appreciate and learn useful things from the west we must adhere to our time tested ways which have made us the greatest survivors !!

[anilkc]

Till a decade back, India was known as a country of beggars. Not because there were too many beggars on the street, but bcos the only thing Indian govt wud do is beg for more money and free stuffs from other countries.

Today, it is known as country of skilled labourers (in private they call Indians as 1st class or white collored slaves).

No doubt, its a big improvement, but is it all we want bcos its all they are ready to give us?

I beleive that till we stop playing it safe, we will never move forward.

[anilkc]

Do not blame the govt for Indias ill. Its a democracy, u get what u deserve.

The problem with Indian mindset is, as Rajendra ji pointed out, KHOONTA.
Indian mind cannot work w/o a khoonta. Duniya ke har kone mein wo khoonta dhundta rehta hai. Kabhi wo sarkari khoonte se bandhta hai to kabhi videshi.

In corporate terms, we Indians are good middle managers.

[jagmohan]

Rajendra Ji,

Namaskar,

There was a thread 'India in 2020' posted by Rinu Ji on 03 Oct 2003. I hope you remember the point wise clarification given by you to the threats I had mentioned in that thread.

You had a very optimistic outlook then. I see a bit of pessimism creeping in. Please remember there are a lot of members who draw inspiration from elder members like you.

I think I have your permission to 'Cut Paste' your response (optimistic) to my post (may be pessimistic but realistic)

I had written:

Let me also take a very realistic view of India in 2020. I am neither a pessimist nor overly optimistic. The Vision 2020 has also been very correctly perceived by our hon'ble President Kalam. However, it is important to know those issues and threats which would hinder our progress. Off hand, I can think of few grave dangers to our very survival. These are:

(a) Kashmir Issue and the growing trend of
sub nationalistic separatist demands.
(b) Communal disharmony and caste divide.
(c) Increasing gap between Rich and Poor.
(d) Growing number of displaced people due
to reasons of developement.
(e) AIDS.
(f) Discredited polity and corrupt politicians.
(g) Lack of basic amenities (Water, Health,
Education & Shelter).
(h) Absence of a Leader who can inspire
confidence.

Individuals will progress in science and technology, space research, IT and bio sciences, but their application to improve the lot of 'poorest of the poor' will lag behind.
The one thing that will hinder the progress of our country for the next 1000 years is the growing population. Some would say having a large population is advantageous. I agree. But having a large population that is in-disciplined is a curse too.

Yes, India will become a manufacturing hub for major industries around the world and a lot of employment will be generated. Yet, the issues that I have mentioned above will never let us assume our rightful place in the community of nations.

I sincerely hope what Rinu has said becomes a reality in my life time.
***********************************
Your reply, hopeful and optimistic, was:

(a) Kashmir Issue and the growing trend of
sub nationalistic separatist demands.

This is almost a world wide trend and in modern time almost all nations are facing this problem to lesser or greater extent. There can not be ideal conditions for any nation and we have to progress under these conditions only. These are like pests and insects to a harvest and we have to just keep them under control.

(b) Communal disharmony and caste divide.

Unfortunately, but true, even nature supports disharmony to a very large extent. Harmoney is a much rarer event in Universe...These divisions have always been there in some or the other form and I suppose will remain. I am sure these can not be excuses for us not to look forward and progress. Once we move forward, hormony will come automatically...Let us not forget that the moving mass rarely fights..its the idle mass which makes all the troubles..

© Increasing gap between Rich and Poor.

If fair means are used to become rich, this difference is a very healthy thing. Rich and poor are like two electrodes in a battery. The potential difference between them makes the battery useful....

(d) Growing number of displaced people due
to reasons of developement.

This is one area where we need to learn a lot and have to come out with meaningful definition of development. True development is one in which everyone benefits and not just the few. May be this becomes the topic if discussion in a separate posting on jatland..

(e) AIDS....

What to say on Aids..One my friend tells that AIDS is not a disease...its more an outcome of sexual misadventures at first place.I am sure it can be controlled as its communicable only through routes which can be monitored.

(f) Discredited polity and corrupt politicians.

Politicians are the creation of society. To have a good harvest of politicians we have to rise to the occasion ourselves if we think we are not corrupt. I am sure one good strong person can influence socity much more than many corrupt people...I can see the tiny number of good people who are taking head-on with corrupt people. I am sure the trend will pick up as we move...

(g) Lack of basic amenities (Water, Health,
Education & Shelter).

Yes lots need to be done on water front. Mindless urbanisation is responsible to most of these problems. The new concept of outsourcing will solve these problems to a great extent. Like western countries are outsourcing from developing countries, cities will outsource from villages in very near future. Villages will come to life in a deacade or so and I am sure of this.

(h) Absence of a Leader who can inspire
confidence.

Let us not forget that we human being have a great survival instinct. In times of desparations we will throw up a leader who will stand the test of time.....

i) Individuals will progress in science and technology, space research, IT and bio sciences, but their application to improve the lot of 'poorest of the poor' will lag behind.

Yes...I agree to a great extent. To me if richness does not come by virtues, poverty also does not come either. If one looks closely at poor person, he is sqarely responsible for his/her plight...

j)The one thing that will hinder the progress of our country for the next 1000 years is the growing population. Some would say having a large population is advantageous. I agree. But having a large population that is indisciplined is a curse too.

On this again I agree as well disagree. Its not 100 average people who lift the nation, but few good people who makes the difference. The ration of good to average remain constant in any society. Problem comes when thse good people leave the population and move to other places. This creates an imbalance (what one calls brain drain). Its like the body left behind without soul...This has ruined villages, and countries...I know this too will come to an end sooner or later.We can see a treand where Brain is coming back to its origins...

k) Yes, India will become a manufacturing hub for major industries around the world and a lot of employment will be generated. Yet, the issues that I have mentioned above will never let us assume our rightful place in the community of nations.}...

I think we are moving up the ladder slowly. We may not be at the top, but we are certainly among the top 10-20 nations whose voice can not be ignored any more. I am sure in next 20 years we will be among the top 5 nations whose voice will be heard and that voice will be backed with money power and muscle power both.....I will willing to go on record on this. ...
***********************************
Thanks and regards,

Lt Col JS Malik (Retd)

[rkumar]

Dear Malik Sahab,

Thanks a lot for bring back the response I posted earlier on similar topic. There are two issues;

1. Place of India in 2020
&
2. Can India Lead ?

Though related, there is degree of difference between two. In the first case we are dealing with a situation where we are moving without any major competitive motive and in second case there is a competitive motive to lead the world. When one is dealing with a competitive situation, the assessment of preparedness is essential. In my recent postings that is what I have tried to convey wheras in the earlier one I tried to speak more or general terms. I agree moral boosting is essential, but then knowing ground reality is also essential when one is preparing or thinking of taking part in some sort of competition. Its like going on war. One must know what all ammunition the opponent has got while boosting the moral of its own soldiars. And ofcourse one has to know the moral of other side also. Then war starts and during the war what all it takes to win the war..

Moral of my posting is that as a nation we have to decide what place we will want to be in the league of nations. If I have the say, I will not settle for anything less than a victory or being number one and will do everything what it will take to reach there. A strong debate has to sart in the country on the issue of our place in the world and we have to address every issue which comes in the way to that goal. Ofcourse 100 billion people can make it and there is no doubt about it. Whole nation has to satnd together and has to move together in this task. Every Indian has to know that in next 10 years we have to make to to the top few in the world. Unless we know our destination, how can we navigate ourselves to that destination? In the absense of goal to destination it can be either landing on the shores of America or starying some where in unknown waters...

Regards
Rajendra

[anilkc]

Thanks Jagmohan Ji and Rajendra ji for u thoughtful insight. I agree we have to have a "very optimistic outlook " for future. Negativism and mentality of status quo is holding us back. We are afraid of change. We have to adapt quickly and think ahead for moving fwd. Take for example the current trend of appreciating Rs--

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownewsdata.asp?newsno=23801

Exporters threaten to stop exports
siliconindia staff writer Thursday, April 15, 2004

NEW DELHI: Hit hard by the appreciating value of the rupee, exporters on Wednesday threatened to stop exports from May 1 and sought immediate remedial measures like pegging of the dollar exchange value at Rs 45.

“Thousands of small exporters have no option but to stop all exports as they are unable to enter into new contracts or even fulfill old commitments due to the extreme volatility in the forex market,” S P Agarwal, President, Delhi Exporters Association, told reporters here on Wednesday.

......

[mbamal]

Hi all,

India indeed is doing well by any standards. It has the capability to do even more. With a lot of indians under the age of 30, there should be no looking back. But some reforms are needed in the political system and "babudom". These are some things that are holding India back. But still by the most optimistic calculations, India would only be the worlds 3rd largest ecomony by 2070 after Us and china. Taking over US in economic terms is not something that would happen in the near fufure. As long as they continue to attract the best brains in the world theres not stopping them. Half of those best brains are of Indians. But as a human being a person's foremost duty is towards his own well being and not neccesarily towards his country. Altough there is a gr8 boom in BPO's, pharmaceuticals and bio-tech, but the performance is very mediocre in other areas. How good is indian economy to handle 1 bad monsoon. I feel that instead of following Us or western europe...one should concentrateon rivalling the other growing economies like Russia, Brazil and China.

[sanjeevmalik]

(Industrial) revolution made England the leader/ruler of the world.
(Industrial + Technological) revolution made America the leader/ruler of the world.
(Industrial +Technological + ----------) revolution will make India the leader of the world.

We will have to fill up the blank, if we wish to be the next leader.

[rkumar]

The message that India has to become number one in the world, must reach masses. Every Indian has to be made part of this mission. Nothing is impossible. Two billion hands can pull the hell all the way to heaven if they all pull in one direction....Where there is will, ..there is a vision and the is way....I can see a straight high way leading from hell to Heaven... just few check posts my friends...

Rajendra

[anilkc]

Sanjiv Ji,

What sets India and other Asian country apart is the social fabric. If we can maintain the good family centric society and get greed out we can better the development model of the west. But sure we will have to make some adjustments. The following article gives some insight into it:

When techie daughter earns more than dad

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/616273.cms

But before that we have to not only cover the industrial+technology ground but create a sophisticated business practice. My conclusion from observing current ind+tech base and the direction its going is that its made for the west. We are providing services to the west. We are getting work in India so that consumer in west has to pay less to maintain its std. This is not bad for India. It provides mass employemnt and pumps money into our economy. By this method we can grow only upto a certain point and will be controlled by the west. We cannot overtake and really beacome world class, unless we learn the ability to create a new path for ourselves. We provide the services to the west which gets shipped back to India imposing the western model on India. Its time now to have our own services, our own products for our consumers and also give to the west producst with Indian twist. Based on this I came to conclusion that Indian can lead only if India can innovate. So, reverting back to my Qs in my 1st post:

CAN India INNOVATE ?

What to make to SUN's CTO comment:
"I don't see that wave of deep thinking coming out of anywhere besides U.S. companies and universities."

[sanjeevmalik]

Just a individualistic comment.

Most of the times the social fabric with high moral values gives a more satisfying meaning to the life. Usually this leads to a society based on emotion and more dependency. Both emotion and high level on family dependency are big drawback to a business, resulting in a less competitive business environment in a society. This has a directly impact on the health and economics of a country.

As usually seen, the social fabric is very weak in developed countries and moral value is low compared to citizens of country like India. I personally don’t endorse having a lightly knit social fabric and lower moral/ethical values, but there seems to be some relationship it and a developed country.

[ajmer]

Sure India has made some progress and it will continue to make a steady progress but the question is - can it compete in the international market and can it make it to top 5 world economies in the next 20-30 years.

There are some things in place for a steady growth. There are IITs, IIMs, RECs and few other good institutions which will keep churning out the sweet cream which is very yummy in the international market. This talent pool also helps India compete in certain markets such as IT even if that is based on price. Then there is a certain amount of english speaking labour which is trying to make some difference in other markets such as BPO.

As I mentioned earlier another big thing in place is the huge NRI pool which keep pumping money into India either directly or by buying Indian products such as their sarees, tur dal, Laxmi Atta or Tilda Basmati.

This is what is making India shine from the top. Yes, India is shining but it is only the top layer. Look at the core and you will see that there is still lot to be done before we can claim that India can lead. There is no question that India has buying power which is probably among the top few countries. But the money is concentrated among the top few percents. Right now there is no mechanism in place by which that money can make it to the masses.

The government needs to start investing that money into education and infrastructure. Just start widening the roads, build dams, build canals, and rebuild schools so that the lower class can get to work and the money starts flowing through the economy.

Another thing which is needed is to tax the upper class on the real price of the property they own and not at the fraction of the price which they declare. This alone can set many things straight.

-ajmer

[anilkc]

Business should be owned by family and run by professionals--this results in a less corrupt and more durable companies....read in some research paper.

[anilkc]

The west needed some cheap workers, they took a some ppl, polished them and put them on top of middle class. Any one not usefull to the western economy remained back in the real India. It just took a couple of yrs for Americans to move work to India and it will take half that time for them to move out if they find some alternative.

[sanjeevmalik]

Though IIMs, IITs, RECs are churning out world class graduates, it just about a 2-4% of the youth. India will have to do a better job in creating world class graduates. And more important is to create a market of the products in India itself rather than relying on the sale in the international market. Anil’s remark is absolutely true that "it will take half the time for Americans/international companies to move out if they find some alternative”

How many of the partly successful people who have made it through the hardships and moved onto foreign lands really feel in their bottom of their heart that the resultant of their success is mainly due to the system in India? Yes!! May be the cruelty in the Indian system challenged them to do something better in life, otherwise the whole lot of their class friends would not dying to get out of India, with whatever it takes mentality.

I guess very few. This is from my personal experience with a small set of people I have met and had some kind of dialogue. The impression I got is that their core part of the reason of their success is largely due to their/family own efforts and sacrifices and not from the system in India.

When majority of the successful personalities will feel from their heart that the India’s system had a major share in their success story, I guess India will be on the path to become an overall global leader.

[anilkc]

Twenty-first century India with a service dominated economy and technology embedded products needs qualified self-employed professionals and workers which in turn requires a shift from general purpose degrees to professional degrees. This will also minimise our army of the educated unemployed.

http://in.rediff.com/money/2004/apr/17guest.htm