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Thread: India China War - A Distinct Possibility

  1. #1

    India China War - A Distinct Possibility

    LAC issue has not been resolved. Chines perfidy at its full display. Chinese used their treachery of de-escalation to fool the Indians but this nation was well prepared. China has moved multi tiered Air Defence near LAC, built new garrisons and stockpiled food, ammo, supplies, weapons for long war. They have recently moved 2 divisions of their Motorized Infantry, built new radar stations, hardened fighter jet hangars, and moved S-300 AAD regiments close to LAC. Their main thrust will be Doklum and annexation of Tawang. Ladakh Area theatre is for showcase only. PLA found out much to their chagrin their troops are total F**kin losers in high altitude warfare despite top notch clothing, tents, accomodation at their disposal.

    Analysis:
    Chinese Strength
    1. Chinese have the money to fight long war. It has $2.2 Trillion war chest
    2. Chinese Mil Industrial complex is far more efficient and better prepared to churn ammo, supplies.
    3. Chinese have overwhelming numerical superiority, Quantitative advantage in men, equipment, infrastructure, logistics, supply chain.
    4. Pakistani Military officers are advising them on tactics, intelligence, Indian weaknesses.
    Chinese Weakness
    1. Their equipment may look overwhelming and menacing in numbers, quality sucks.
    2. Their Air force and Navy is the weakest link
    3. Armored Corps is known to bog down in fog of war.

    Indian Strength
    1. Battle Hardened Troops
    2. Highly trained troops in Artillery, Armored Warfare, Helo Borne Operations, Infantry
    3. Supply and Logistics are a challenge. Indian Military Industrial complex is too political, everyone has an opinion but no responsibility
    4. Qualitative advantage. Tejas, Rafale, Mirage fighter AC are par excellent. SU30 may prove itself, remains to be seen.
    5. Indian War Planners have learned modern tactics and techniques from western countries. Do maximum with minimal
    6. Superior Air Lift capability, equal or better in missile capability.
    7. All three services are battle hardened, battle ready.
    Indian Weakness
    1. India has no Money. 1/4 the forex reserve compared to China.
    2. Ordinance Factory can't produce ammo, mired in corruption and communist unions
    3. Ammo reserve is adequate for short war but not for long haul
    4. Internal Security is precarious.
    5. Indian Media will play spoil sport. Perception is reality
    6. Internal sabotage at behest of Paki sympathizers
    7. General Population lacks Mental Toughness. Everyone is a politician with belief he can run the country better notwithstanding the fact they can't even run their own household.
    8. Corruption.

    Possible Scenario China
    1. China wins: China takes Tawang, Bhutan and calls for cease fire. Use their Security Council power to veto anything
    2. China takes Aksai Chin, consolidates its gain, secures karakoram highway. Establishes Paki-Chini bhai bhai.
    3. Stalemate: Not acceptable to China. They lose face and prestige on world stage.
    Possible Scenario India
    1. Stalemate: India fights back and stalls chinese advances. Both Sides engage in Hit-Run Tactics. Chinese lose tempo, momentum and Initiative.
    2. Defeat: India loses Bhutan, Tawang, Aksai Chin, DBO, Despang Tso, Nepal goes fully under chinese influence, may become chinese region
    3. Wins: US and Western Countries provide money, ammo, fuel, supplies, Transport Planes, Parts, Clothing, Intelligence. India recovers Kailash, Aksai Chin, and other lost territory, shuts down Doklum Chicken neck. Bhutan becomes India's autonomous region along with Nepal. India launches another mission and takes over PoK.
    4. India is fatally wounded economically, comes under USA umbrella.

    Hmmmmmm..........




  2. #2
    Truth is, despite having much hyped Rafale and S400 missile defence system, India canít stand in front of China. US can help us to save the face while Russia can play a role of messenger to negotiate a ceasefire with China. This is what we can expect in such a situation. If US meddles in war, then only India can hold its territory else India should be ready to give up its territory in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh along with some strategic passes in Ladakh.
    Also, possibilities of a two front war with Pakistan canít be rule out in such a scenario.
    India should refrain from the adventure of reclaiming its occupied territories in Kashmir or Aksai Chin unless we are part of NATO alike defence pact or get the US backing the way Israel get on Palestine issue.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ayushkadyan View Post
    Truth is, despite having much hyped Rafale and S400 missile defence system, India can’t stand in front of China. US can help us to save the face while Russia can play a role of messenger to negotiate a ceasefire with China. This is what we can expect in such a situation. If US meddles in war, then only India can hold its territory else India should be ready to give up its territory in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh along with some strategic passes in Ladakh.
    Also, possibilities of a two front war with Pakistan can’t be rule out in such a scenario.
    India should refrain from the adventure of reclaiming its occupied territories in Kashmir or Aksai Chin unless we are part of NATO alike defence pact or get the US backing the way Israel get on Palestine issue.
    Many people don't know, Rafale and Tejas did a combined sortie along LAC. There were many surprises! India is standing to china with fist closed. One must know what's going on there in real time before commenting. Fighting was is different than being bully.

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